The week when Alinghi took control of the situation – Part 2
Following yesterday’s analysis of the situation, we are now studying some possible strategies for both protagonists.
When a bold strategy backfires!
To add pain to BMWOracle’s misery, by extending the time frame to an America’s Cup in 2009, the legal process has given Alinghi the possibility of exploring different designs before construction, having more time for construction and development of their vessel. The Defender may also decide to design and construct more than one vessel since Alinghi is not required to designate its competing vessel until the start of the first race.
Had BMWOracle known that it had over a year to design, build and train on its challenge vessel, they would more than likely had a different design and construction strategy which would have resulted in a more powerful, faster yacht for the races. To be forced to give all this information to the Defender with so much lead–up time to the Match is surely the worst nightmare for a Challenger.
Beware, BMWOracle is not a newcomer!
The American Team is extremely experienced and you can be certain they planned for multiple scenarios. Apart from the general concept of their boat they will have designed a boat with a range of rig sizes to adapt to different venues and they will have much more time to learn about their boat by launching early.
Mutual consent?
The ‘Deed of Gift’ states that both competitors can agree on almost everything based on ‘Mutual Consent’.
By having this long and painful legal battle, both teams set the tone for an ‘hostile DoG Match’ and the communication between Alinghi and BMWOracle is in tatters. ‘Mutual consent’ between these two is no longer an option, however it appears the team that might suffer the most from this hostile stand-off is again BMWOracle.
How can one say this when only a couple of weeks ago the Challenger seemed to have the edge over the Defender? Because the Deed of Gift favors the Defender so much.
· Apart from choosing the date, the Defender selects the venue.
· They know well in advance what sort of ‘weapon’ the Challenger is coming with.
· They name the judges and run the races.
· They write the sailing rules.
· They govern pretty much anything and everything and might even be allowed to change boat’s between races should they wish to do so.
A hostile DoG Match is like climbing Everest with no oxygen for the Challenger and one thing is for sure we can expect Alinghi to not give an inch of breathing space to the BMWOracle team.
One of the several strategies for the Defender
When all the required information is given to the Defender, Alinghi can decide to build a similar boat and prepare for a match come summer 2009 or, and it is more than likely, they will go in a different direction.
Let’s assume that the American boat is a trimaran weighing 10 to 12 tons and optimized for 12 to 15knots of wind. A vessel with a range of rig sizes adaptable to different venues and wind conditions.
The Defender could design a catamaran weighing 7 to 8 tons. A multihull perfectly optimized for a 5 to 8 knot wind range. Bearing in mind that the Swiss team is the world specialist in sailing catamaran’s on Lake Geneva, they know how to design and built an extremely light weight multihull, a rocket ship in light wind conditions.
Alinghi could then choose a location where the wind is light or even select Valencia as the venue and decide the races will start at 8am when there is virtually no wind in the hot season as seen during the last America’s Cup.
Even with several rig sizes in their artillery, how could the American Challenger’s much heavier boat out-perform the super light Swiss torpedo on the water?
A Challenger has never won a DoG Match
Unfortunately, as anyone can see, the Deed of Gift has been written to favor the Defender. A Challenger has never won a DoG match in the history of the America’s Cup and given the very specific rules of this trophy it is no wonder the New York Yacht Club has defended the Cup successfully for 132 years. Unless the Challenger’s got a head start on technology, he has virtually no chance of winning an America’s Cup DoG match. BMWOracle has just lost that edge and their situation could be fast becoming close to desperate.
What now?
A ‘hostile’ DoG match with the Defender holding all the ‘ace’ cards is the worst case scenario for a Challenger. Cornered and with their back against the wall, BMWOracle now has a fantastic opportunity to show the World how smart they are.
· Will they carry on with their ‘DoG Match’ with virtually no chance of winning it?
· Will they take the option of ‘pulling the pin’ before it is too late and negotiate a new protocol with the Defender?
· Or are we going to witness another mis-match for the 33rd America’s Cup in 2009?
Only time will tell but what a waste and a crying shame if it is to be the latter.
Sebastien Destremau
www.destremausailing.blogspot.com